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Hey investors and entrepreneurs,

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Here are the reads, clicks, and listens to send you into the weekend...

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• Do you need to own international stocks?
• Long term outlook.
• Playing it too safely.
• Disappearing rewards for owning stocks over bonds.
• Calling out room dynamics.
• The benefits of insecurity.
• Overrelying on AI.
• & loads more of the good stuff below.

But first...this week I have a question for the entrepreneurs & operators...

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(next week I have a question for the investors)

If you hit other, remember to reply and let us know!

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For the Investor

🤑 Do You Need to Own International Stocks? - U.S. stocks have massively outperformed international stocks over the past 15 years, but relying solely on them makes your portfolio heavily tied to the tech sector and U.S. market cycles. Owning international stocks adds diversification and mitigates risks tied to any one country’s economy.

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🤑 Sector-Adjusted Global Stock Market Valuation and Long-Term Outlook - Emerging markets like Brazil, China, and Korea are are trading at MUCH lower valuations, with potential long-term returns of 8-13% a year, while developed markets are mostly stuck in low gear thanks to the overpriced US, which might only deliver 0.8% annually. The US is so overvalued that even adjusting for its tech-heavy makeup doesn’t help much, and anyone riding global indices like the MSCI World is mostly just piling into expensive US stocks.

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🤑 Margin of Too Much Safety - Hedge funds crushed it after the dot-com bust by going long on cheap stocks and short on overpriced ones, but the 2008 crash showed most of them weren’t all that special. Many underperformed, offered worse liquidity, and charged higher fees than basic 60/40 portfolios. Even legendary investors got stuck playing defence in the bull

market that followed.

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🤑 High Interest Rates Are Hammering Investors. What Lies Ahead Could Be Worse - Higher interest rates could keep going up as the U.S. drowns in debt and investors demand huge payouts. Businesses hooked on cheap loans, commercial real estate, and the housing market are already feeling it, and a 6% Treasury yield could rock stocks. The real nightmare is if the world loses faith in U.S. bonds and the dollar, making borrowing even more painful. (non-paywall version)

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🤑 The Extra Reward for Owning Stocks Over Bonds Has Disappeared - Stocks aren’t paying extra for the risk anymore, with the equity risk premium going negative for the first time since 2002 thanks to high Treasury yields and crazy stock valuations. Investors don’t seem to care, though—they’re still all-in on big tech, hyped on AI, and convinced the old-school 60-40 portfolio is dead. (non-paywall version)

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For the Entrepreneur

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🤑 The hidden cost of overrelying on AI: Lessons learned the hard way - Relying on it too much kills the deep thinking and creative struggle that lead to real innovation. Intelligence can be replicated, but genius—the ability to question, intuit, and create beyond known patterns—cannot. The more we delegate our reasoning and problem-solving to AI, the more we risk losing the very thing that sets us apart from it.

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🤑 Can Insecurity Be Your Secret Weapon in Entrepreneurship? - Insecurity can drive success when it's seen as fuel for growth instead of a weakness. By leaning into discomfort, embracing failure, and staying humble, entrepreneurs can innovate , refine their ideas, and create real impact. The lessons are in the launch.

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🤑 What’s the difference between agentic AI and generative AI? - Agentic AI handles complex stuff, makes decisions, and learns as it goes, while generative AI sticks to making things like text or images based on what you ask it.​

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🤑 The Art of Calling Out Room Dynamics - Calling out the elephants in a room can break tension, reset the tone, and refocus your group on the goal at hand. Simple observations like "It feels like we’re stuck defending positions instead of problem-solving" can interrupt negativity, reduce emotions, and build trust. This obviously works best when paired with emotional intelligence.

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🤑 The Future Is Here: It’s Time To Scale Your Business With Video - Video isn’t optional anymore. Businesses that prioritize video—on their websites, not just social media—can build trust, deepen customer relationships, and grow sales without sacrificing control to platforms or fees. Success comes from creating consistent, value-driven content that feels personal and focuses on solving problems, not chasing trends.

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Invest in Boring Businesses Dry cleaners, HVAC, laundromats, lawn care. ​ These “boring businesses" are now popular for a reason. ​ Unlike their venture capital counterparts, good small businesses are cash flow positive. ​ Immense pricing power, actual profits, and decades of successful operations. ​ Eventually, though, these businesses must be sold. ​ When they do, acquisition entrepreneurs take the helm. ​ They raise capital from investors, acquire the company, and run it with fresh eyes. ​ This lets investors earn the returns of "boring businesses", without operating them. ​ But, where can you find these deals? ​ Enter CapitalPad - a platform connecting accredited investors directly with SMB acquirers. ​ ​ 👉 CapitalPad.com/invest​

• ​When to Let Go of Old Goals. ​Forcing yourself to finish something just because you started it can drain you. Quitting what no longer matters might be the smarter move.
• ​The truth about fiction. Calling a book fiction or nonfiction isn’t just labeling—it’s controlling the narrative. Texas officials reclassified Colonization and the Wampanoag Story to reject history they didn’t like.
• ​Your phone is destroying your social life. Screens are making people worse at real human interaction. Kids struggle to read faces, small talk is fading, and even dating feels mechanical. Convenience is coming at the cost of basic social skills.
• ​HubSpot’s SEO collapse: What went wrong and why?Google’s updates is hitting HubSpot hard for chasing traffic with content that’s too wide and too thin. Stuff like “famous quotes” and “resignation letter examples” isn’t cutting it anymore, and it’s dragging down their whole blog.
• ​Wrapper isn't a dirty word. Tech gets commodified, but great products last. DeepSeek’s AI shake-up proves the real winners are those who build what people like, not just better tech.

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2025 Economic Outlook with Mohamed El-Erian - Mohamed is the President of Queens' College, University of Cambridge and he talks about why the U.S. economy keeps defying expectations, holding strong despite high interest rates, while inflation stays stubborn. He sees a “no-landing” scenario where the Fed might have to settle for 2.5% to 3% inflation instead of its 2% target. The U.S. is pulling ahead with AI, energy, and biotech, but Europe and China struggle which could create long-term global risks. He also sees Bitcoin sticking around as digital gold rather than replacing the dollar. [Episode website link]

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​Apple | Spotify | Youtube​

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Mohamed El-Erian, President... Jan 9 · The Walker Webcast 55:30   ​

• ​Deepseek - Might as well see what the hype is all about. Could be a flash in the pan, or could be the next prominent player in the industry. DeepSeek is a Chinese developing open-source LLMs. Its advanced AI models, particularly DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1 are possibly going to rival OpenAI's Model o1 at a fraction of the cost. The just released an image generator as well.

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• ​Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Experimental - from Google DeepMind comes an advanced AI that actually shows its thought process, making it more transparent and reliable. It’s great at handling complex problems, whether in math, science, or big-picture reasoning, and it can even run code when needed. With a massive context window of up to a million tokens, it’s built for deep analysis while staying fast and efficient.

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❌ No hype ❌ No BS

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Members, here are some of the threads you may have missed…

• Taylor starts a thread on tax structures for management/hold cos.
• Rob gives his thoughts on when to position defensively which kicks off comments on tariffs and migrant work impact.
• Travis is looking for recommendations or resources for improving delegation.​
• Dustin gets some help finding deeper and more impartial analysis in the geopolitical space.​
• Taylor looking for an easy way to get a continuous blood glucose monitor for a month.
• Chris gets suggestions for an investment account for children where they won't blow it all when they're 18.

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Upcoming Fireside Chat with Della Kirkman Feb 11, see the event page for details.

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Added - a new section called The Vault, where any epic and value bomb post/thread shall immortalized.

In Snowball...

Snowball member retreat in Las Vegas being planned for Spring - more info here.

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• Upcoming group calls:
  • More Fireside chats coming up.
  • A special wealth chat.
  • A monthly crypto chat.
  • A monthly Ai chat.
  • Monthly group M&A chat where members discuss deals and opportunities they're seeing.
• More excellent Fireside chats lined up - stay tuned.
• Members can access recordings of all our Fireside Chats anytime here.​
• You'll also find investing opportunities for members to take advantage of.

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Join Snowball.

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Disclaimer: Not financial, investing or tax advice. This newsletter is strictly for information, entertainment and education purposes. Nothing in here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This newsletter is not tax advice. Talk to your professional advisors. Do your own research. There will also be affiliate links in here from time to time because we like free money.